You may view the 5 minute update this week via audio:
In this week’s 5 minute update, we focused on:
1) Analysis of the Israeli election results
2) The current status of the Israel / PLO peace process
3) The USA now is under judgment
Israel’s final election results show the following results:
1) 31 Likud-Yisrael Beitenu. Likud, the party of Benjamin Netanyahu and Yisrael Beitenu (the Russian immigrant party)
2) 19 Yesh Atid (there is a future). This is a secular centrist party, headed by former Israeli journalist Yair Lapid
3) 15 Labor. This is a socio-economic party headed by Shelly Yachimovich.
4) 12 Jewish Home. This is a nationalistic modern Orthodox party headed by Naphtali Bennett
5) 11 Shas. This is a Sephardic Ultra-Orthodox party
6) 7 United Torah Judaism. This is a Askenazi Ulta-Orthodox party
7) 6 Hatnua (The Movement). This is the party of Tzipi Livni. She is a strong advocate of peace negotiations with the Palestinians.
8) 6 Meretz (The Movement). Far left wing party.
9) 2 Kadima. This party is headed by Shaul Mofaz. He also advocates peace negotiations with the Palestinians.
In Israel, you vote for a political party. You don’t vote for a specific candidate. The leader of the political party which receives the most votes gets to form a coalition of parties to establish a government and become Prime Minister. As a result, Benjamin Netanyahu is in position to remain as Prime Minister of Israel. In realizing this fact, following the election results, Netanyahu said, “I’m proud to be your prime minister. I thank you for giving me a chance, for the third time, to lead the State of Israel. It is a great privilege and a great responsibility.”Then, he outlined five major principles of the next government:
1) Security. Stopping Iran from getting a nuclear weapon
2) Fiscal responsibility. Due to a large government spending deficit, cuts in government spending.
3) Political responsibility. Seeking peace with the Palestinians
4) Equal distribution of burden in society. This means drafting Ultra-Orthodox Yeshiva students into the Israeli military
5) Social and economic responsibility: Cut the cost of living and housing prices
Based upon these guidelines, Netanyahu will attempt for form a government. Since there are 120 members in the Israeli Knesset, he needs at least 61 members to form a majority government. Ideally, he would like to form a government with about 80 members. This would prevent his government from being toppled if one of the parties in the coalition becomes unhappy with one of the domestic or foreign policy decisions adopted by the government. While this may be a goal, because of the competing political interests of the various elected parties, this goal will not likely be achievable.
It would seem that Netanyahu has three viable options to form a government:
1) Right Wing coalition: Likud-Beitenu joining Jewish Home and the Ultra-Orthodox parties. This would give him a coalition of 61. However, this government could easily be accused of being against the peace process. It could result in an international economic boycott against Israel for failing to negotiate with the Palestinians. With the Ultra-Orthodox in the coalition, Netanyahu would not be able to get approval to draft Yeshiva students into the Israeli military.
2) Center-Right coalition: Likud-Beitenu joining Yesh Atid (Yair Lapid) and Jewish Home. This would give him a coalition of 62. With this government, Netanyahu could better implement his domestic policies but would be weak against international pressure concerning the peace process. So, this also could result in an international economic boycott against Israel for failing to negotiate with the Palestinians.
3) Left Wing coaltion: Likud-Beitenu joining Yesh Atid (Yair Lapid), Labor (Shelly Yachimovich), The Movement (Tzipi Livni), Kadima (Shaul Mofaz). This would give him a coalition of 73. This would be the strongest government against international pressure regarding the peace process. It would also be a government which could implement Netanyahu’s domestic policies. However, Labor (Shelly Yachimovich) doesn’t want to be in government with Netanyahu. She also would like to topple his government so she could possibly be Prime Minister. With this government, Netanyahu risks the greatest chance of losing his political power.
Netanyahu has already started the process to initiate coalition talks. Initially, he reached out to Yesh Atitd leader Yair Lapid and the leaders of Shas and UTJ, the two Ultra-Orthodox parties. He did not call the leader of Jewish Home, Naphtali Bennett. The Jerusalem post reported that Netanyahu would only invite Jewish Home to join the coalition once a majority of 61 MKs was in place, so he would not have to worry about the party remaining in the coalition following diplomatic concessions, such as the removal of unauthorized West Bank outposts. Jewish Home is opposed to a Palestinian state and had advocated annexing Area C of the West Bank. Jewish Home does not want to be in government with Tzipi Livni who supports a peace agreement with the Palestinians.
Initially, Netanyahu talked with Lapid for 2 1/2 hours before he made contact with Bennett of Jewish Home. The delay in contacting Jewish Home is seen as being significant, since the order in which negotiations take place with parties determines which party will join the coalition first, and receive the “juiciest” portfolios, and which is “left out to dry.” Netanyahu may prefer to form a coalition without Bennett because he thinks Bennett’s hard line on Judea and Samaria (West Bank) will make it more difficult for him to get along with U.S. President Barack Obama.
Yesh Atid (There is a future) and its leader Yair Lapid has two basic conditions for joining the Netanyahu government: 1) Drafting Ultra-Orthodox Yeshiva students (those who study Torah full-time) into the Israeli military and 2) The resumption of peace talks with the Palestinians.
It is being reported that Netanyahu is prepared to offer Lapid a senior position in his government. He would have the choice between the foreign affairs or finance position. Jewish Home, the nationalistic modern Orthodox party, leader Nephtali Bennett would like to receive the Religious Affairs Ministry if he joined the government. In doing so, he would seek to change the religious status-quo in Israel which is now dominated by the Ultra-Orthodox.
Because of the threats against the Ultra-Orthodox parties, Shas and United Torah Judaism, from the proposed changes to the religious status-quo from Yesh Atid leader Yair Lapid who wants to draft Yeshiva students in the Israeli army and Jewish Home who wants the Religious Affairs Ministry, Shas and United Torah Judasim are planning to unite this weekend to form a single bloc in the Knesset which would be better able to fight the reforms desired to be imposed against them.
A representative from United Torah Judaism, Moshe Gafni said, “We’ll offer Shas to form a join team that will include representatives from both sides. The people may have spoken by giving Yair Lapid 19 Knessset seats but the same people also gave the haredi parties 18 mandates. We’ll probably join forces on the basic issues. We have similar principles in that respect.” Shas party leader Aryeh Deri said that his party and United Torah Judaism will be united on the issue of drafting Yeshiva students into the Israeli military and the funding of Yeshiva institutions.
In a letter addressed to Yesh Atid leader, Yair Lapid, Ohad Shaked, a history and civics teacher, who is ultra-Orthodox, pleaded with Yair Lapid to not implement policies that would start a civil war in Israel between the non-Ultra-Orthodox and the Ultra-Orthodox. He wrote the following to Yair Lapid:
“I am sure you are a very intelligent man who understands the equal share of the burden (also called “drafting yeshiva boys”) issue very well. This is a very serious issue, and the next government will have to address it. This issue may exacerbate the religious-secular divide in Israel and lead to civil war. Deciding on a universal draft would result in the outbreak of a civil war within a few months. The ultra-Orthodox will not relent. Moreover, as the draft becomes more coercive, the resistance to it will intensify. Therefore, it will be your job to find a way to draft the haredim who should be drafted (particularly those who do nothing – they are frowned upon by the rabbis as well) while allowing those yeshiva boys who do study to continue to do so. You must find the right mechanism to check who among the ultra-Orthodox should be exempt from IDF service under the Torato Emunato (Torah is his profession”) arrangement and who shouldn’t. This can only be done through dialogue. Now is the time to reach an agreement between the seculars and haredim. The haredim understand that a solution is needed, but a good solution is one that comes only from the understanding that the haredi population is different; it has different beliefs and different needs. One must be very creative to find a way to combine the secular and ultra-Orthodox worlds. If you succeed in reaching an agreement on such an important tissue, you will be able to reach agreements with the haredim on other matters as well – and certainly promote your agenda. If you choose not to follow this path, you will be responsible for a civil war, should it break out.”
Meanwhile, Yesh Atid, Yair Lapid, would prefer that the nationalistic modern Orthodox party, Jewish Home be in the coalition rather than the ultra-Orthodox. Lapid believes that the Jewish Home views toward drafting Yeshiva students and economic policies are more consistent with the views of Yesh Atid and thus would be comfortable with Jewish Home being in the coalition.
In the election campaign, Likud-Beitenu attacked Jewish Home who was perceived to be their strongest threat to receiving more votes. Likud Knesset member Moshe Feiglin said that Likud’s mudslinging against Jewish Home was a catastrophe. He estimated that Jewish Home lost 4-5 seats that went to Yesh Atid because of the political attacks.
Left wing Labor leader, Shelly Yachimovich, said that she refuses to sit in government with Benjamin Netanyahu because their socio-economic policies are radically different. She said that should it be needed that Labor would support the peace process with the Palestinians from the opposition. However, the 3rd person in Labor, Eitan Cabel, said that if Benjamin Netanyahu was interested in having a coalition government which includes Yesh Atid, Tzipi Livni Kadima and Labor but excludes Jewish Home and the ultra-Orthodox parties that if would be difficult for Labor to refuse such an offer.
Based upon the election results and the political negotiating that is going on to form a coalition government, I believe that Israel is at a historical cross roads where it must choose between secular Zionism or nationalist / religious Zionism. In Ezekiel 37, the dry bones coming to life comes about in 2 stages. The first is a physical return (secular Zionism) and this is followed by a spiritual return (religious Zionism). With the results of the elections, it seems that Netanyahu has a choice of embracing secular Zionism (a left wing government), religious Zionism (a right wing government) or a combination of the two. However, in seeking to achieve a combination of the two, the secular Zionists are rejecting the policies of the religious Zionists and the religious Zionists are rejecting the polices of the secular Zionists. So, which government will Netanyahu choose? In the next several weeks, we should begin to know.
The link to these articles are as follows:
1) Final election count: Right bloc 61, Center-Left 59 seats
2) Netanyahu: Leading Israel is a privilege
3) PM preempts Peres by building broad coalition
4) Netanyahu Meets Lapid for 2.5 Hours, Puts Bennett on Back Burner
5) Lapid’s terms: Universal draft, peace talks
6) PM offers Lapid FM post or Treasury portfolio
7) Lapid wants Foreign Affairs, veto for Defense appointment. Bennett – Religious Affairs
8) Haredi parties consider uniting fronts
9) UTJ, Shas discuss possibility of forming haredi bloc
10) Lapid, prevent civil war
11) Lapid Prefers Bennett in Coalition
12) Feiglin: Likud Shot Itself in the Foot
13) Yachimovich to PM: Labor in opposition
14) ‘If PM formed Center gov’t, Labor would likely join’
15) Israel at Crossroads: Biblical Zion or Secular Zion?
Palestinian spokesman Nabil Abu Rudeina commented on the Israeli election results and said, “We shall cooperate with any government that is committed to the United Nations General Assembly resolution on the establishment of a Palestinian state whose capital is Jerusalem on the 1967 borders.” He further added, “What is important is that the next government will be committed to the two-state solution, halt settlement construction and recognize the General Assembly resolution.”
Nabil Shaath called on the Unites States and the European Union to increase pressure on Israel to freeze settlement building and resume negotiations leading to a Palestinian state within six months, or face international sanctions. The Palestinian Authority has said it would not return to the negotiating table without an Israeli settlement construction freeze.
In response to the Israeli election results, the United States spokesman Jay Carney renewed the call for a resumption of long-stalled Israeli-Palestinian peace negotiations. Carney said: “We believe that what needs to take place is direct negotiations between the two parties (Israelis and Palestinians) that addresses the final-status issues and results in a two-state solution.”
Jordanian King Abdullah speaking at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland said: “The time to take action in the Middle East is now.” He added that in the next couple of months, Jordan would be marching toward Washington alongside it’s international partners in the peace process, and saying “Mr. President, it’s time to engage in the the Palestinian-Israeli peace process.”
An agreement to divide Jerusalem and establish a PLO state is a tribulation event.
The link to these articles are as follows:
1) PA: Next government must recognize Palestinian state
2) Palestinians predict isolation for Israel after right-wing election win
3) U.S. renews call for resumption of Israeli-Palestinian talks
4) ‘Two state solution only viable as long as Obama in power’
Messianic Rabbi Jonathan Kahn, author of the best seller book, ‘The Harbinger’ warned in his book that the events of 9/11 was a prophetic warning to the USA based upon the prophecy of Isaiah 9:10 to the Northern Kingdom of Israel when they were attacked by the Assyrians yet parallels the response to 9/11 from US leaders and their call to make the USA stronger and to rebuild around Ground Zero. He was the keynote speaker at the Presidential Inaugural Prayer Breakfast meeting. His message was a warning that the judgment of the God of Israel is upon the land.
An agreement to divide Jerusalem and establish a PLO state is a tribulation event.
The link to these articles are as follows:
From a Biblical prophetic perspective, the reason why the God of Israel would allow these events to happen is because it will result in the end of the exile of the house of Jacob and the reunification of the 12 tribes of Israel (Ephraim and Judah).
We will to be “watchmen on the walls of Jerusalem” and we will not rest until the God of Israel makes Jerusalem a praise in the earth (Isaiah 62).
Shalom in Yeshua the Messiah,
Eddie Chumney
Hebraic Heritage Ministries Int’l