You may view the 5 minute update this week via audio:
In this week’s 5 minute update, we focused on:
1) The current situation with the Israel / Palestinian peace process
After failing to pass a UN Security Council resolution at the end of December to recognize a PLO state based upon 1967 borders with East Jerusalem as its capitol, Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas said that the Palestinians will resubmit their statehood resolution. On January 2, the Palestinian leadership decided to refile that request. “We will go back to the Security Council until it recognizes our rights,” Abbas said. “We didn’t fail, the UN Security Council failed us. We’ll go again to the Security Council, why not? We are determined to join international conventions and treaties despite the pressure from others.”
On January 1, five new nations joined the UN Security Council. They were: Angola, Malaysia, New Zealand, Venezuela and Spain. Collectively, these nations are more sympathetic to recognize a PLO state than the five nations that they replaced on the UN Security Council. Jordan, which submitted the Palestinian UN resolution that was defeated in the Security Council, will remain a member of the Security Council during 2015.
The Arab League foreign ministers are scheduled to meet on January 15 to discuss the Palestinian issue. “The meeting will review a number of issues, the main one being the developments regarding the Palestinian case, especially after failing to pass the UN bid,” Arab League Deputy Secretary General Ahmed Helly said. The meeting will also discuss “future steps to support the Palestinian position,” Helly said.
The Jordanian government is not enthusiastic about the Palestinians wanting to resubmit their UN resolution. Jordans believes that the move is too-hasty and destined to fail again if the Palestinians do not reach an agreement – specifically, with the United States and Great Britain, and the international community – on a clear-cut path for returning to the negotiating table with Israel. Jordan prefers renewing peace negotiations between Israel and the Palestinians rather than the Palestinians resubmitting a UN Security Council resolution for recognition of a PLO state which will only complicate the current diplomatic situation.
In fact, Jordan’s King Abdullah tried during his December visit to the United States to promote the resumption of negotiations as per a plan supported by the Americans. However, the Palestinians surprised him by unilaterally turning to the Security Council. On the eve of the UN Security Council vote during the last week of December, the Jordanians sought to delay the vote and carry on with discussions regarding the Palestinian resolution – mainly with the United States. But PA President Mahmoud Abbas insisted on continuing with his plan, and wanted the vote to take place even at the risk of a U.S. veto. Abbas argued that since it first placed its statehood proposal on the table of the Security Council, the United States has not presented a single blueprint that will guarantee even the minimal Palestinian demands for a resumption of peace negotiations with Israel.
France warned the Palestinians against escalating a diplomatic battle with Israel after Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas said he would resubmit to the UN Security Council a resolution calling for the creation of a Palestinian state. French Foreign Minister Laurent Fabius said: “We are against the logic of letting this spiral (out of control). While we think the Palestinians have the right to move the status quo, at the same time there has to be an effort to find a consensus solution. Once you set this cycle off, you get results that you don’t want one way or another.”
Meanwhile, France had been working prior to the Dec. 30 UN Security Council vote on the Palestinian resolution on a separate resolution with Britain and Germany that aimed to set the parameters and a time frame for new peace talks. French Foreign Minister Laurent Fabius said: “We worked on this resolution believing we could achieve a consensus but it wasn’t possible,” indicating that France was likely to back a new Palestinian resolution provided the text remained broadly unchanged. However, Fabius questioned the wisdom of resubmitting the resolution, adding he would discuss the issue with Jordan, Egypt and other regional players. “The real question is to understand what is Palestinian motive behind this move. Is it to get an American veto with a new UN Security Council composition? Is it to reaffirm an attitude towards the Israeli government? We don’t know.”
Meanwhile, Hamas said it was “totally opposed” to Palestinian Authority (PA) Chairman Mahmoud Abbas’s plans to re-submit to the UN Security Council a resolution on forcing Israel to withdraw from the West Bank. “Hamas is totally opposed to any return to the UN Security Council by the Palestinian Authority,” spokesman Sami Abu Zuhri said. “Such a step would be political foolishness which plays a dangerous game with the destiny of our nation. Mahmud Abbas and the leadership of the Palestinian Authority should completely stop this political foolishness,” Abu Zuhri said.
On December 31, Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas signed applications for Palestinian membership in 20 international organizations and treaties including the International Criminal Court. Abbas signed the applications at the beginning of an emergency meeting of PLO and Fatah leaders following the Palestinian UN Security Council resolution to recognize a PLO state did not pass. The Palestinian leaders voted unanimously in favor of the decision to join international organizations and treaties. Chief PLO negotiator Saeb Erekat announced that the applications to join the international organizations and treaties would go into effect in 90 days. The signing ceremony was broadcast live on Palestine TV.
UN Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon said that Palestine will join the International Criminal Court on April 1. In a statement posted on the UN’s treaty website, the secretary-general said “the statute will enter into force for the State of Palestine on April 1, 2015.” The ICC registrar addressed a letter “to the government of Palestine accepting this declaration and transmitted it to the prosecutor for her consideration.” The president of the Assembly of States Parties to the Rome Statute, Senegal’s Justice Minister Sidiki Kaba, “welcomed the deposit by the State of Palestine of the instruments of accession to the Rome Statute of the International Criminal Court,” after being notified by Ban that he had officially received the Palestinians’ application. He said he was acting as the “depositary” for the documents of ratification. A statement said that “the deposit of the instruments of accession by the State of Palestine,” effected as of January 2, had brought the number of state parties to the Rome Statute to 123. Kaba added, “Each ratification of the Rome Statute constitutes welcome progress towards its universality. I call on all members of the United Nations to join this permanent and independent system of international justice to fight against impunity and prevent the most serious crimes under international law, which is based on the principle of complementarity with domestic jurisdictions.”
In response, the US State Department spokeswoman Jen Psaki said, “Palestine is not a state, and therefore does not qualify for membership in the International Criminal Court. The US will oppose the Palestinian Authority’s move to join the body, and several others at the United Nations, as technically flawed.”
The Obama administration believes that the PA’s ICC bid runs contrary to the pursuit of peace, and is a major setback to the diplomatic process. American officials are also examining whether the move violates US appropriations law for the continuation of Palestinian aid. The United States provides roughly $400 million in aid to the PA on an annual basis.
Israel Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said that Palestinian moves to apply for membership at the International Criminal Court and to seek statehood unilaterally via the UN had pushed the prospects of peace off the table. He indicated that he wanted an accommodation with the Palestinians in principle but that a two-state solution was impractical for now given the Palestinians’ desire to get unilateral recognition at the UN. Netanyahu said that Palestinian leaders were the ones who should be prosecuted in the ICC over their unification with rival faction Hamas. “It is the Palestinian Authority leaders – who have allied with the war criminals of Hamas – who must be called to account,” he said. “IDF soldiers will continue to protect the State of Israel with determination and strength, and just as they are protecting us we will protect them, with the same determination and strength.”
Asked whether he still supported Palestinian statehood, including the dismantling of settlements, Netanyahu replied: “With the terms that they want, at the moment it’s simply out of the question. Any territory that we would evacuate in the current reality, everybody understands, will be grabbed immediately [by extremist forces].” Netanyahu said the Palestinian strategy had “emptied of all content” and hindered his readiness to work for a two-state solution as set out in a landmark speech he gave at Bar-Ilan University in 2009. “I don’t want a binational country… but the Palestinians have chosen confrontation. They’re not going to negotiations. They’re going to the UN, to the International Criminal Court, to sue Israeli soldiers, commanders as war criminals. I mean, seriously, let’s give them the territory? Close our eyes? We did that. It happened in Gaza. We saw what happened. Hamas won.”
In response to the Palestinians submitting an application to the UN to join the ICC, Israel decided to implement economic sanctions against them. Israel froze the transfer of a half a billion shekels (about $125 million) from tax funds collected on behalf of the PA by Israel and which are normally distributed every month to them. Israel is also looking at ways to prosecute senior Palestinians for war crimes in the United States and elsewhere. Israel would probably press these cases via non-governmental groups and pro-Israel legal organizations capable of filing lawsuits outside of Israel. An Israeli official said that the Palestinian leaders “ought to fear legal steps” after their decision to sign onto the Rome Statute. “(Hamas) … commits war crimes, shooting at civilians from civilian populated areas,” the official said.
The United States said it opposes a move by Israel to freeze the transfer of tax revenues to the Palestinian Authority in retaliation for its bid to join the International Criminal Court. US State Department spokeswoman, Jen Psaki said: “We’re opposed to any actions that raise tensions between Israel and the Palestinians. And obviously, this is one that raises tensions. What we are trying to avoid here is a back and forth tit-for-tat,” Psaki said.
The European Union (EU) also condemned Israel’s decision to freeze the transfer of taxes collected for the Palestinian Authority (PA) as a penalty for joining the International Criminal Court (ICC). Without directly mentioning the unilateral PA attempt to join the ICC, European Union foreign affairs head Federica Mogherini said that “recent steps taken…could aggravate the already tense situation on the ground and bring them further away from a negotiated solution. She criticized Israel for “not meeting obligations regarding the timely and transparent transfer of tax and custom revenues.” The tax freeze “runs counter to Israel’s obligations” agreed in 1994 following the Oslo Accord,” she said. “Both sides should refrain from taking actions which could raise obstacles to the rapid return to the negotiations,” she added. “An effective Palestinian Authority, committed to non-violence and a peaceful resolution of the conflict, is a key element for a two-state solution,” Mogherini said. She further stated that the EU was a major source of financial assistance for the PA.
In response to the Israeli decision to freeze sending monthly tax money to the Palestinians, the Arab League has agreed to provide emergency funds to cover the VAT-taxes frozen by Israel. VAT taxes are earned by the Palestinian Authority and collected by Israel. Timely transfers of the VAT-taxes are essential to keeping economic and social stability in the West Bank. They constitute 70-percent of the Palestinian Authority’s revenue and finance the bulk of salaries and public services in the West Bank such as hospitals and schools. Palestinian leaders say Israel has sent no direct communication to their government regarding the suspension of VAT taxes.
In mid-September when terms for a ceasefire and reconstruction in Gaza were being brokered following the summer war with Israel, the Palestinian Authority held talks with the Arab League to secure a financial commitment with the expectation Israel would withhold transferring revenue as a punitive measure in the near future. In a December meeting with the Arab League, the Palestinians received a commitment of direct support of $100 million a month for each month Israel withheld transferring VAT taxes. All 22 foreign minsters of member countries to the Arab League attended the December meeting. It was held in Cairo three weeks before Jordan submitted a United Nations Security Council Resolution to end Israel’s occupation and days before Palestinian leaders discussed their United Nations plans with Secretary of State John Kerry in London.
“There is an agreement with the Arab countries that they will have a safety net, funds that will be available to us. Funds of around $100 million a month that will help with the Israelis and any other countries that could threaten to withhold funds,” explained Palestinian Liberation Organization’s Negotiations Affairs Department spokesperson Ashraf Khatib. Khatib said that the Palestinian plan to make up for the anticipated loss of VAT-tax revenue and the move at the ICC are both parallel long-term strategies. This Arab League safety net will help the Palestinians avoid the expected temporary bankruptcy and allow them to move forward with pressing for war crimes at the ICC. Khatib explained that the Palestinian leadership has spent the past two years in preparation of filing charges against Israel in the ICC and that teams of international law experts have been hired to assemble portfolios for two possible cases against Israel. Khatib said no decision has yet been made on which case will be presented to the court but the possibilities include potential war crimes committed in Gaza in 2014 and violations to the Fourth Geneva Convention in the West Bank.
Palestinian leaders have yet to release a timetable of when they will seek charges against Israel but the general strategy is that submitting a complaint with the ICC will compel the international community to create new parameters for negotiations rooted in the framework of international law. In fact, financial support from the Arab League was a key component, along with joining the ICC, of a long-term strategy to pressure Israel into negotiations. The goal of these negotiations from the Palestinian perspective remains the creation of a Palestinian state based on pre-June 1967 lines with East Jerusalem as its capital, an end to the Israeli occupation and the right of return for Palestinian refugees based on return and compensation.
Ambassador Dennis Ross, the United States’ chief negotiator for Arab-Israeli issues from 1993 to 2001 and an Obama adviser 2009-11, argued that while it is fair to ask Israel to accept the basic elements facilitating peace — “1967 lines as well as land swaps and settlement building limited to the blocks” — it is also “time to demand the equivalent from the Palestinians on two states for two peoples, and on Israeli security.” Ross noted that Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas’s latest efforts to pressure Israel via the UN Security Council and the International Criminal Court will do nothing to alter the reality on the ground, and blamed the Palestinians for dooming three previous efforts to resolve the conflict through negotiation. The Palestinians need to “respond to proposals and accept resolutions that address Israeli needs and not just their own,” he argued.
A veteran senior Middle East official in both Republican and Democratic administrations going back to the Carter presidency, Ross recalled that “since 2000, there have been three serious negotiations that culminated in offers to resolve the Israeli-Palestinian conflict: Bill Clinton’s parameters in 2000, former Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert’s offer in 2008, and Secretary of State John Kerry’s efforts last year.” On each occasion, Ross wrote, “a proposal on all the core issues was made to Palestinian leaders and the answer was either ‘no’ or no response. They determined that the cost of saying ‘yes,’ or even of making a counteroffer that required concessions, was too high.” Unfortunately, Ross elaborated, “Palestinian political culture is rooted in a narrative of injustice; its anti-colonialist bent and its deep sense of grievance treats concessions to Israel as illegitimate. Compromise is portrayed as betrayal and negotiations – which are by definition about mutual concessions – will inevitably force any Palestinian leader to challenge his people by making a politically costly decision.”
Ross continued, “European leaders who fervently support Palestinian statehood must focus on how to raise the cost [for the Palestinians] of saying no or not acting at all when there is an offer on the table. Palestinians care deeply about international support for their cause. If they knew they would be held accountable for being non-responsive or rejecting a fair offer or resolution, it could well change their calculus.” Ross blamed “most Europeans” for being “focused far more on Israeli behavior” than Palestinian intransigence. The European Union (EU) and others in the international community need to stop enabling the Palestinian Arabs to make demands without making concessions.
Ross, who resigned from his post as Middle East adviser in 2011, relates that he met with a European official recently who praised the Palestinian Authority (PA)’s unilateral moves against Israel in international agencies and organizations, specifically the draft resolution PA Chairman Mahmoud Abbas submitted to the United Nations (UN) Security Council during December. Ross urged European leaders to “raise the cost of saying ‘no’ or doing nothing at all” for the PA in future negotiations – and, at the very least, to offer a “balanced” proposal for a peace deal which included land swaps, but also allowing “security arrangements that leave Israel able to defend itself by itself” and a resolution recognizing Israel’s own character as a Jewish state. Resolutions are typically about what Israel must do and what Palestinians should get. If saying yes is costly and doing nothing isn’t, why should we expect the Palestinians to change course?”
If the upcoming Israeli elections produce an Israeli leadership that is “prepared to take a peace initiative and build settlements only on land that is likely to be part of Israel and not part of Palestine, there will be no need for a United Nations resolution,” Ross said. But if not, and if the Europeans then opt to return to the UN route, any resolution they back “must be balanced,” he emphasized. “It cannot simply address Palestinian needs by offering borders based on the 1967 lines with mutually agreed swaps and a capital in Arab East Jerusalem without offering something equally specific to Israel — namely, security arrangements that leave Israel able to defend itself by itself, phased withdrawal tied to the Palestinian Authority’s performance on security and governance, and a resolution of the Palestinian refugee issue that allows Israel to retain its Jewish character.” However, any such resolution would likely be rejected by the Palestinians, acknowledged Ross, just as they had rejected the necessary compromises in 2000, 2008 and 2014.” In doing so, Ross said that the Palestinians should bear consequences in terms of international support after so many failed attempts to bring peace.
An agreement to divide Jerusalem and establish a PLO state is a tribulation event.
The link to these articles are as follows:
1) Abbas: Palestinians will resubmit statehood resolution
2) Arab League to Discuss PA Draft Resolution
3) Report: Amman angered by Palestinians’ UN bid
4) France warns Palestinians over escalating crisis with UN bid
5) Hamas ‘Totally Opposed’ to PA Statehood Bid
6) Abbas signs Rome Statute, paving way for possible war crimes probe against Israel at ICC
7) UN chief says Palestine will join ICC on April 1
8) US: Palestine not a state, does not qualify for ICC membership
9) Following ICC application, Israel freezes $125 million in Palestinian tax funds
10) US opposes tax freeze on Palestinians for ICC bid
11) EU Condemns Israel for Freezing PA Tax Money
12) Despite punitive Israeli tax freeze, Palestinians to pursue war crimes charges with Arab League financial help
13) Peace chances mothballed by Palestinian moves, Netanyahu says
14) Former US Negotiator: Stop Giving PA Free Rein
15) Dennis Ross: Europe must push Abbas to compromise for peace
From a Biblical prophetic perspective, the reason why the God of Israel would allow these events to happen is because it will result in the end of the exile of the house of Jacob and the reunification of the 12 tribes of Israel (Ephraim and Judah).
We will to be “watchmen on the walls of Jerusalem” and we will not rest until the God of Israel makes Jerusalem a praise in the earth (Isaiah 62).
Shalom in Yeshua the Messiah,
Eddie Chumney
Hebraic Heritage Ministries Int’l